The upcoming Ballon d’Or ceremony in London on 26 October has sparked a lively debate among football pundits, with the focus keyword “ballon d’or” appearing in every prediction. BBC Sport asked a panel of former players, journalists and analysts to name who they think should lift the trophy, and the responses fell into two clear camps: the teenage Spanish winger Lamine Yamal and England captain Harry Kane.
Lamine Yamal entered the conversation on the back of a glittering season that saw him win La Liga with Barcelona and play a part in Spain’s World Cup triumph. European football expert Guillem Balague argued that a Ballon d’Or without a Spanish or Paris Saint‑Germain player was “impossible”, ruling out Kylian Mbappé and suggesting the vote would be split among several PSG stars. Balague praised Yamal’s “individual performances, collective trophies and aura”, insisting that the 19‑year‑old is the only Spaniard deserving the award.
Julien Laurens, another European analyst, also highlighted Yamal’s impact in the Champions League, noting his penalty in the final and goals in the semi‑finals, the quarter‑final and the last‑16. Laurens called Yamal “the best player in Europe last season”, especially in the continent’s biggest competition. Yet he warned that Yamal’s World Cup showing was “not really shining” and that his Champions League run with Barcelona ended early, leaving room for other candidates such as Georgian winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
Former Liverpool defender Stephen Warnock echoed the sentiment that Yamal’s World Cup heroics should count heavily, while also naming Kvaratskhelia as a personal favourite. Warnock said the Georgian’s performances for Paris Saint‑Germain were “unbelievable”, but doubted his chances because Georgia did not feature in the World Cup. Rory Smith, a BBC Radio 5 Live guest, added that the Ballon d’Or traditionally goes to a player who has won the biggest trophy, which in this cycle is the World Cup. He acknowledged Yamal was not Spain’s most crucial player, yet his fame and talent could sway the vote.
On the other side of the divide, a group of former England internationals rallied behind Harry Kane. Alan Shearer declared that Kane’s “absolutely sensational” numbers for Bayern Munich and England over the past 12‑18 months merit the award. Danny Murphy described Kane’s goal‑scoring as “relentless, brilliant”, praising his adaptation to Bayern and calling him the best centre‑forward in the world during that period. Andros Townsend listed Kane’s statistics: 73 goals in 65 games, 36 in the Bundesliga, 14 in the Champions League and six at the World Cup, which helped Bayern secure a league‑cup double and England reach the semi‑finals.
Former England striker Ellen White admitted the choice was difficult but said her heart leaned toward Kane, citing his “extraordinary” numbers despite England’s failure to win the World Cup. She also noted Yamal’s injuries and suggested Michael Olise had been phenomenal, but she believed Kane’s consistency made him a strong contender. Norwegian journalist Lars Sivertsen added that Kane’s leadership at Bayern and his low‑key personality might hurt him in what he called “a popularity contest”, yet he still voted for the England captain.
The split among experts reflects the broader uncertainty surrounding the Ballon d’Or voting process. While bookmakers list Yamal and Kane as the clear favourites, the presence of eight‑time winner Lionel Messi, now with Inter Miami, and Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé adds further intrigue. Some commentators, like Balague, even suggested that a PSG player would inevitably win, naming several club stars, Fabian Ruiz, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele and Vitinha, as possible vote‑splitting candidates.
For ordinary fans, the debate show how the award balances individual brilliance, team success and global exposure. Yamal’s youth and World Cup win resonate with a generation that values flair and narrative, while Kane’s relentless scoring record appeals to those who measure greatness by consistency and statistical dominance.
As the ceremony approaches, the voting panel, composed of journalists, national team coaches and captains, will cast their ballots. The final tally will be revealed live in London, where the world will finally learn whether the Ballon d’Or crowns a teenage sensation or an established striker. The next step for the contenders is to keep their form high in the remaining weeks of the season, hoping to tip any undecided voters in their favour.
