The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) announced on 27 October that fresh conditions will govern the issuance of petrol import licences, linking approval to transparent assessments of domestic supply shortfalls and published merit‑based criteria. The policy was unveiled by NMDPRA chief executive Rabiu Umar during his keynote at the 2026 OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week in Lagos, a forum themed “Secure Energy, Shared Prosperity.” At the same time, the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) released its latest landing‑cost figures, showing a modest drop in the estimated cost of imported petrol to N1,283.81 per litre.
Umar stressed that the door for importers remains open, but licences will only be granted where operators can demonstrate compliance with the new requirements and where an auditable shortfall in local supply can be proven. “For our importers, the door stays open. Import licences will be issued only on the basis of published merit‑based criteria and also a transparent shortfall determination that everybody can audit,” he told the assembled audience. The regulator’s move is intended to protect competition and prevent unnecessary imports from eroding the gains made by Nigeria’s expanding domestic refining sector.
Domestic refining capacity has indeed risen sharply. In September 2026, local refineries supplied roughly 75 percent of the nation’s petrol needs, a marked improvement from a year earlier when imported fuel accounted for more than half of the market. “A year ago, more than half of the petrol in Nigerian tanks was imported. Last month, three litres in every four were refined here,” Umar noted, attributing the shift to increased output at facilities such as the Dangote Refinery and the newly‑restructured modular plants. Nonetheless, he warned that reliance on a single major refinery still poses a risk, urging the development of modular refineries, rehabilitation of government‑owned plants and the maintenance of alternative import channels to guard against potential disruptions.
The MEMAN bulletin released on 21 October showed the landing cost of imported petrol slipping by N9.07 per litre, a 0.7 percent decline from the previous estimate of N1,292.88. The new figure sits N66.19 below Dangote Refinery’s reported gantry price of N1,350 per litre and is also lower than marketers’ ex‑depot prices, which range from N1,348 to N1,358 per litre. Despite the reduction, motorists in Lagos and Abuja continue to pay between N1,370 and N1,429 per litre at the pump, underscoring the gap between import costs and retail prices. The regulator clarified that landing costs exclude certain distribution expenses and retail margins, meaning cheaper imports do not automatically translate into lower pump prices.
Umar also reiterated that the Petroleum Industry Act does not give NMDPRA the authority to set petrol prices. Instead, the agency’s mandate is to ensure fair competition, transparent transactions and compliance with established market rules. To strengthen consumer protection, NMDPRA has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission and is consulting stakeholders on rules designed to curb anti‑competitive behaviour.
Looking ahead, the authority plans to streamline licensing procedures, cut bureaucratic delays and introduce remote licensing services that would allow qualified operators to secure approvals without physically visiting NMDPRA offices. Some licences that currently require annual renewal could be extended to five‑year terms, provided operators meet the applicable standards. Umar argued that predictable regulations, coupled with a robust domestic refining base and transparent import arrangements, are essential for sustaining Nigeria’s fuel supply and attracting further investment in the downstream sector.
The regulatory shift arrives as other parts of the industry signal progress. Edo Refinery, a modular plant, surpassed 100 percent capacity utilisation in September, emerging as the top‑performing modular refinery in the country. Together with three other operational modular refineries, it now delivers about 620,000 litres of automotive gas oil (AGO) daily, bolstering the nation’s diesel supply and easing pressure on the overall fuel market.
While the reforms aim to align import licences with actual supply needs, the immediate concern for consumers remains whether the combination of higher local production and lower import landing costs will eventually bring down retail prices. Market analysts point to the persistence of distribution costs, taxes and retailer margins as factors that continue to push pump prices upward despite the modest cost savings on imported fuel.
The next steps involve the NMDPRA finalising the merit‑based criteria and shortfall assessment methodology, after which operators can apply for licences under the new framework. Stakeholder consultations are slated to continue through the end of the year, with the regulator promising to publish detailed guidelines before the next licensing cycle begins.
